Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?
Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)
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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !
If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)
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Opinion Reviewing the bank stress tests – July 2011
As was seen during the stress tests carried out in July 2010, the latest ones published by the European Banking Authority on the 15th of July 2011 do not include a proper measure of market systemic risk. This hinders their (...)
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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks
Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)
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Note Financial crisis indicators and safe haven assets
How to measure the intensity of the current financial and economic crisis? Regular monitoring of a number of economic and financial indicators helps answering this question and better understanding the materialization of panic behavior and portfolio reallocations in the (...)
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Note Euro zone bailout plans: origin and utilization
Back on bailout plans granted to countries in the Euro zone encountering severe fiscal deficits since May 2010. How are tens of billions Euros raised, what are they for, and mainly, are those amounts enough to re-establish the public finances and stabilize those countries (...)
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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !
We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)
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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?
Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.
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Note Financial markets and self-fulfilling prophecies
This phenomenon is equivalent to the change from a brutal economic and financial equilibrium to another, not because the fundamentals of the macroeconomic environment would justify it, but because there was a change for good or bad reasons of market (...)
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Regulation Basel III: regulators seem to ignore market failures
The changes in our regulatory framework (BASEL 3) and the widespread use of inappropriate IFRS rules will not solve the imbalances of the international financial and economic system
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Note Strategic tasks of central banks: focus on the ECB
Beyond the traditional measures and in a context of systemic risk, we wonder about what specifically should be the strategic tasks of a central bank
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Strategy Financial markets: hedging against new structural risks and stagflation
There are at least four new structural risks to consider: regulation, Middle East, euro zone’s crisis, and again the idea of a change in growth model of emerging countries.
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Opinion Robots have taken power in finance
Describe the real world with numbers is a trend that seems to be accelerating. Thus, digital technology is associated with financial models to show that we (human) interact with our environment using mathematical (...)
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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation
The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)
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Note 10 proposals to rebuild finance and monetary macroeconomics
Rethink monetary policy and its objectives, reform our accounting and prudential environment, review the return on equity standards, regulate the prices of certain assets...
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